2025 Hurricane Season Predictions and How to Prepare Commercial and Residential Properties

Hurricane season is upon us once again. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released its predictions, which, as in recent years, have called for above-normal activity in the Atlantic basin for this year. 

We’ll delve into these predictions and offer some solutions on how best to prepare commercial and residential properties for before, during and after the storm. See More Hurricane Season Insights

NOAA's 2025 Predictions

NOAA's 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, released on May 22, 2025, predicts an above-normal season, running from June 1 to November 30. The forecast includes: 

• 13-19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
• 6-10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
• 3-5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111 mph or higher) 

There is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, with 70% confidence in these ranges. Neither El Niño nor La Niña are in control, and factors contributing to the active season include warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and weak wind shear and increased activity from the West African Monsoon. NOAA emphasizes preparation due to potential rapid intensification and significant impacts, as seen in the 2024 season with hurricanes like Helene and Milton.

Lessons learned from the 2024 Hurricane Season 

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ended on November 30, 2024, was one of the most active and destructive on record, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The season caused an estimated $130–$200 billion in damages, making it the second costliest on record, and resulted in 358 deaths from five U.S. landfalls. Here are the key lessons learned: 

• Rapid intensification poses growing challenges: Several storms in 2024 underwent rapid intensification, fueled by unusually warm ocean waters due to climate-driven trends and La Niña conditions. This made forecasting more difficult and reduced preparation time for communities. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other agencies emphasized the need for improved rapid intensification prediction models to better anticipate these sudden escalations in storm strength.
• Inland areas face increasing risks: The season highlighted that hurricane impacts are not limited to coastal regions. Storms like Hurricane Helene caused unprecedented inland flooding and destruction in areas previously considered low-risk, such as parts of the Carolinas and Georgia. This underscored the need for expanded hazard mapping, updated evacuation plans, and infrastructure resilience in inland communities.

• Flooding as a major cost driver: Flooding, both from storm surges and heavy rainfall, was a dominant factor in the season’s $160–$180 billion in economic losses. The rising cost of flood damage highlighted gaps in flood insurance coverage and the need for stronger building codes and flood defenses, especially in urban areas. Experts advocate for rethinking urban planning to mitigate future flood risks.
• Improved preparedness and community resilience needed: The season exposed weaknesses in preparedness, particularly in understanding evacuation zones and ensuring adequate supplies. Experts stressed the importance of early preparation, including stocking supplies, reinforcing infrastructure, and enhancing community education on hurricane risks. The devastating impacts underscored the need for proactive measures and robust coastal defenses.

• Forecasting challenges and expectations vs. reality: Despite predictions of an above-normal season due to La Niña and warm sea surface temperatures, the season didn’t fully align with initial storm count forecasts. However, the intensity and impact of major hurricanes like Helene and Milton exceeded expectations, revealing an over-reliance on sea surface temperature anomalies for seasonal forecasting. This has prompted calls for refining forecasting models to better account for atmospheric dynamics and climate variability.
• Structural lessons for building resilience: The season provided critical insights into infrastructure vulnerabilities, particularly roof performance during extreme winds. Stronger building standards and retrofitting existing structures were identified as key strategies to reduce damage. Commercial contractors and emergency management agencies emphasized the role of rapid response and recovery planning in mitigating impacts.
• Economic and insurance implications: The unprecedented $500 billion in estimated damages (per some sources) highlighted the strain on insurance and reinsurance markets. Carriers may face higher reinsurance costs and reduced coverage availability in the future, emphasizing the need for financial preparedness and risk transfer mechanisms at both individual and governmental levels.

These lessons are shaping preparations for the 2025 season, with experts urging a focus on resilience, updated forecasting tools, and community-driven preparedness to address the increasing unpredictability and severity of hurricanes in a warming climate.